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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."