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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.